Hedge Against Inflation

By @carlbmenger - Episode XIX. Block height: 850000. Surviving hyperinflation and economic turmoil. A practical guide.

In the dawn of hyperinflation's relentless grip, life becomes a ballet of survival, where every coin is a fleeting whisper of yesterday's worth. Families dance through markets, eyes scanning for sustenance among barren shelves, hearts racing against the ticking clock of devaluation. The garden, once a mere pastime, transforms into a sanctuary of hope, each sprout a promise of tomorrow's meal. Neighbors weave closer, threads of camaraderie tightening as they trade bread for skills and laughter for solace. Children play in the streets, their games a poignant reminder of innocence amid the struggle, and their laughter a symphony of resilience echoing through the alleys of uncertainty.

Hyperinflation, an economic scenario marked by an uncontrollable and rapid increase in prices, wreaks havoc on economies, undermines societal virtues, erodes personal savings, and significantly reduces purchasing power. Although it may not seem imminent in some countries, historical evidence suggests that every fiat currency eventually loses its value over time - Gradually, then suddenly. Thus, protecting yourself and your hard-earned assets from hyperinflation becomes paramount. Beyond financial strategies, enhancing personal development through continuous education, financial literacy, and self-sufficiency practices, along with building strong community networks, forms a comprehensive approach to ensuring resilience and adaptability in the face of economic instability.

The Government

Bad news first: During severe economic turmoil and hyperinflation, governments often tighten their grip on power, imposing stringent controls to maintain order and curb economic chaos. They might implement price controls, attempting to cap the cost of essential goods and services, though these measures often lead to black markets and further scarcity. Currency restrictions have become commonplace, with limits on bank withdrawals and foreign exchange to prevent capital flight. Propaganda is ramped up, with state media emphasizing nationalistic themes and portraying the government as the defender against external and internal economic enemies. The regime might also suppress dissent harshly, using security forces to quash protests and silence critics who challenge their handling of the crisis.

The pattern has repeated itself many times throughout history. Ordinary people are desperate for a charismatic leader. This person will come as a savior who will promise to fix the economy, get your job back, and put food on your table. People instinctively know that those promises are bullshit, but they are so desperate that they want to believe that “this time is different” and the promises are true, so the majority will vote for this authoritarian leader, and there is little you can do about it as an individual.

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes” – Mark Twain.

In a bid to stabilize the economy, authoritarian governments officials centralize economic decision-making, taking direct control of industries and centralized networks. Emergency decrees will override existing laws, allowing the state to seize private property or requisition resources deemed critical for survival. Corruption and favoritism flourish under such regimes, as loyalty to the ruling party becomes a prerequisite for business success. Public trust erodes as the disparity between official narratives and everyday hardships grows more apparent. This means that your government won’t or can’t save you or your loved ones. You are the only one who can save yourself!

Be Fit

An economic crisis, like any other major disturbing event we face in life, can be dealt better if we have both mind and body prepared for it. Things will inevitably get tough, unfair and painful, both physically and emotionally. You will have to deal with it. Being a crying baby who blames others and calls himself/herself a victim won’t fucking help. Man/Women up, now!

Physical Health

Getting your body into shape is the most important thing you should do for yourself right now, not just for hyperinflation. Fighting against inflation while you yourself are inflated like the German Mark during Weimar Germany won’t help your cause. Your body is your most valuable physical tool. Your brain provides the software but needs the hardware to perform at its best. I am not saying you need to be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger, but you should be able to do hard work, fight, run, and, if needed, carry a backpack weighting ten to twenty percent of your own body weight.

Beware: Fix any health problems now, when you are still able to find a doctor and get proper medical attention. Things will get turbulent during economic turmoil, and it will be hard to find and/or afford a doctor. Therefore, get your teeth fixed! Better smile and be healthy now, then sorry later.

Mental Health

Preparing mentally for hyperinflation involves building resilience, staying informed, and maintaining a proactive mindset. Develop a positive mindset by focusing on controllable aspects of your life and practicing gratitude. Engaging in regular stress-relief activities like mindfulness, meditation and deep breathing exercises can help you stay calm and focused during turbulent times. I personally discovered Stoic Philosophy to tackle daily struggles, be more resilient and less fearful. Everyone has their own sanctuary, discover yours.

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In addition, learn some basic practical skills, like growing your own food to reduce dependence on expensive groceries and acquiring skills in home wrecking and vehicle maintenance to save costs on professional services. Develop a network for bartering goods and services, which becomes tremendously valuable once the value of currency is gone. Bartering will be the new normal, and you need to provide real hard value to others to be able to exchange goods and services in a post-currency era.

Build Community

Finding a like-minded tribe is not an easy task. However, start by fostering strong relationships with family, friends, neighbors, and community members who can provide mutual support and resource sharing. Strengthen your ties with family and close friends, as these relationships are often the most reliable during crises. Participate in local community groups, such as neighborhood associations, volunteer organizations, or local clubs, to meet new people and expand your support network. Engaging in community events and activities can help build trust and camaraderie, essential for a resilient network.

Additionally, identify and connect with individuals who have practical skills and resources that could be valuable during hyperinflation. This might include farmers, healthcare professionals, tradespeople, and local business owners. Establishing a bartering system within your network can provide access to goods and services without relying solely on money. Share knowledge and skills with others to create a mutually beneficial environment. By building a diverse and supportive network, you can increase your collective resilience and ability to navigate the challenges of hyperinflation effectively.

Doctors, lawyers, accountants and other professionals often don’t know much about survival-related skills that will become even more important if shit hits the fan. If you have some expertise in these areas, you can trade your knowledge for the help they can offer you in return. Again, it's all about building mutually honest relationships with people you can help and vice versa. 

Pro Tip: In the ever-expanding realm of the Bitcoin community, we witness a convergence of diverse souls, each bringing unique talents and perspectives to the fore. Should the fragile edifice of fiat currency crumble, one might wager all their Bitcoin on the collective ingenuity and resilience of this community. United by a shared vision, they will not merely endure the upheaval but will flourish, crafting a new society grounded in principles of fairness and transparency. Thus, get your ass up and participate in Bitcoin Meet-ups!

Financials

Scarcity

One of the primary similarities among good financial hedges against inflation is scarcity. Assets that are scarce or limited in supply tend to maintain or increase their value during periods of inflation. This scarcity can be intrinsic to the asset itself or imposed by external factors such as regulatory constraints or geological limitations.

Shiney Gold

Gold has long been considered a reliable hedge against inflation, a reputation that dates back thousands of years. Historically, during periods of high inflation, gold prices tend to rise as the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines. For example, during the 1970s, a decade marked by high inflation rates in the U.S., the price of gold soared from around $35 per ounce in 1971 to over $800 per ounce by 1980. This increase provided a safeguard for investors, preserving their wealth amidst the erosion of the dollar's value. The intrinsic value of gold, coupled with its limited supply and universal acceptance, underpins its role as a stable store of value in times of economic uncertainty.

While physical gold provides a tangible sense of security, it also poses notable challenges. One significant drawback is the issue of storage and security. Safeguarding physical gold requires robust and often costly storage solutions, posing logistical challenges for individuals and institutions alike. Moreover, physical gold lacks liquidity compared to other assets, requiring time and effort to find buyers, determine market value, and potentially incur substantial transaction fees. Furthermore, during times of crisis, countries may implement capital controls to stabilize their national currencies. These measures can restrict or prohibit the movement of significant gold holdings across borders, as governments may seize assets at borders or impose strict regulations on their transfer.

Beware: Paper gold or gold stored in bank vaults presents a risk of confiscation. Throughout history, instances have occurred where government regulations allowed for the seizure of gold held in bank safety deposit boxes, as seen in the U.S. between 1933 and 1971, when access required oversight by federal tax agents. To safeguard against such risks, individuals hoarding gold should opt for self-custody, storing it securely at home or in a private vault.

Paper Stocks

Stocks have historically proven to be a good hedge against inflation due to their potential for capital appreciation and dividend growth, which can outpace inflation over the long term. During periods of moderate inflation, companies often pass increased costs on to consumers, leading to higher revenues and profits, which can boost stock prices. For example, in the late 20th century, despite periods of rising inflation, the U.S. stock market experienced substantial growth. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures sparked inflation fears, yet the stock market saw remarkable gains.

However, during hyperinflation, the possibility of stock confiscation by the government becomes a tangible threat as authorities scramble to stabilize the economy and maintain control. Faced with soaring inflation rates and widespread economic turmoil, authoritarian regimes might resort to nationalizing private assets, including stocks, to centralize resources and prevent capital flight. This expropriation is often justified under the guise of economic necessity or public good, yet it typically undermines investor confidence and exacerbates the economic crisis. Stockholders could see their investments forcibly converted into devalued national currency or state-controlled shares, stripping them of ownership and eroding their wealth.

Beware: A stock depot including exchange-traded funds (ETF) - also Bitcoin ETFs! - represents a centralized repository vulnerable to government confiscation risks. Centralized control through a stock depot allows governments to potentially seize assets held within these platforms.

Scarce Bitcoin

Bitcoin has emerged as a popular hedge against inflation due to its unique properties as a digital asset that is easily movable and decentralized. Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin can be transferred globally with relative ease and speed, making it a convenient store of value during inflationary periods. This mobility is particularly advantageous in times of economic turmoil and currency devaluation, as individuals and institutions can swiftly move their wealth into Bitcoin as a hedge against purchasing power erosion. As a digital asset with a finite supply and growing adoption, Bitcoin's decentralized nature and inherent scarcity make it a compelling choice to protect your wealth from inflationary pressures.

However, unlike gold, Bitcoin has a very short history, so no one can predict how it will perform in the event of hyperinflation. However, compared to gold, Bitcoin has one fundamental advantage: It can be effectively used as a medium of exchange, offering a stable alternative to rapidly devaluing fiat currencies without the lack of divisibility. As traditional money loses value at an alarming rate, individuals and businesses can turn to Bitcoin for transactions. With a growing number of merchants accepting Bitcoin, everyday purchases — from groceries to utility bills — can be easily conducted. Peer-to-peer transactions (via the Bitcoin Lightning Network) also become simpler and more reliable, bypassing the unstable banking system. Thus, support Bitcoin companies and embrace a Bitcoin circular economy wherever you can.

Beware: Bitcoin offers a unique advantage over other forms of financial assets, in that it can be transferred across borders discreetly by simply memorizing a 12- or 24-word recovery phrase. This method of transportation eliminates the need for physical carriage and reduces the risk of detection or confiscation.

Conclusion

As the twilight of fiat money nears, prepare for a new dawn. Diversify wealth in gold (Minor stack) and Bitcoin (Big stack). Embrace bartering, where trust and skill replace currency and the community becomes your ally. Grow your sustenance by turning to the earth and finding solace in homegrown meals. Master practical skills, each a shield against the unknown. Fortify your mind with knowledge and resilience. Build a network of kindred spirits; their support is a tapestry of mutual aid. Together, we navigate the old world’s ruins, forging bonds beyond material loss. Find beauty in survival’s small victories. Hold fast to hope, envisioning a future reborn where value lies in community strength and incorruptible assets. As fiat fades, rise with the dawn of resilience and self-reliance.

The End

That's it for this episode. I hope you got some valuable information from this one. Don’t forget: Be fit, take care of your loved ones, stack Sats and self-custody your coins. Thanks for reading, and see you in the next one.

₿ critical, ₿ informed, ₿ prepared. Yours,

Carl B Menger

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