Bear Market Diaries: Volume 8 With Nikcantmine
By @piratebeachbum - Analyzing The Bear Market Series
Name:
Nik
Country:
USA
How do people know you?
People mainly know me through Twitter, but I’ve met lots of new people in person at conferences who didn’t know me through that.
How long have you been into Bitcoin?
Almost 5 years, I found and got into Bitcoin in my senior year of high school during the fall of 2017.
How many Bitcon market cycles have you been through?
I guess it would be 2 now - the bull of 2017, the bear of 2018- 20, the bull of mid to late 2020-2021, then the bear of 2022.
What are you optimistic about in this space despite the current state of the market?
I am optimistic about those building real businesses who incorporate Bitcoin into it somehow. And I don’t just mean Bitcoin products or services, but those business, big and small, who are holding BTC on their balance sheet, and accepting Lightning payments. I follow Bitcoin news all day, and I am always seeing new places accepting it as currency or holding it as a reserve asset.
A local burger joint in my city starting accepting Lightning payments, and I asked them what are their honest thoughts were since implementing it. They told me they loved it and that they prefer getting paid in Lightning because they are saving on fees compared to accepting card payments, and it’s instant settlement. I am bullish on everyday people and businesses incorporating Bitcoin into their lives and benefitting from it.
What tips do you have to those who are new to this or who might be upside down?
Dive into the reason why Bitcoin was created in the first place, and learn why fiat currency is so bad. Aggressively accumulate Bitcoin to build a solid position, and make sacrifices to stack cheap Bitcoin now because after you’re in for a full cycle, you will be very proud you did. Take your bitcoin off custodians and hold your own keys. Don’t get too caught up in the craziness of the market and with others on Twitter.
Biggest regret during the last bull market?
Telling a hometown friend that Bitcoin was going to go to $200k by end of 2021, and some tweets of me being too bullish. Peak bull market was my profile pic as Jordan Belfort with laser eyes giving the camera the middle fingers - y’all should have known to short the market right then and there 😂
What have you learned so far in this bear market?
I’ve learned to be humble or get humbled. While meming on Twitter about the price of Bitcoin can be really funny, I learned that sharing my price predictions with family/normie friends is not something I should do.
I had a reflection moment and revisited the reasons why I got into Bitcoin because I felt as if I had got too caught up in the noise and deviated away from those reasons. And realized I learned about myself in what I want/don’t want in life.
What is the biggest fail you have seen during the last bull cycle?
Mike Novogratz getting a Luna tatto and Do Kwon attempting to buy $10 billion for his rube goldberg machine, acting so cocky about it online just for it to crash to $0 within a day once the peg broke. He showed up on the scene just as quickly as he left - tale as old as time with these scammers.
We got one of my favorite tweets and memes ever from it “Deploying more capital - steady lads”.
What do you think helped trigger the current bear market?
The China ban on miners, wiping out 50% of the hash rate. I think that was the beginning of it. The loss of interest from retail after getting dumped on, on their NFTs, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu.
Who was exposed during this last market meltdown?
Do Kwon and the team over at 3AC.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin Maximalism?
Bitcoin maximalism is a good thing and despite what some crypto influencers may say, there is nothing wrong with just wanting to hold the hardest money and nothing else. It gives people a solid base layer to build a life, business, family, etc, on. Money is a tool for us to improve our life, and people want to use the best money.
It is scammy and disingenuous for people to shame people for wanting to only hold itcoin, especially considering how there are so many scams and worthless garbage in the broader crypto economy. According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute, from May 2013 to July 2022, 67% of all altcoins have gone down 99%, and this number is quite conservative considering it excluded the coins that never made a value over a penny. Think of all the other coins that have gone down 70-98% against Bitcoin, it’s pretty much the rest of the altcoin market.
Altcoins trend to 0 against Bitcoin, so bitcoin maximalism is just wanting to hold the best money and not lose BTC by holding other coins that are devaluing against it.
Why do you think there is an emerging narrative to demonize Bitcoin Maximalists?
I think the blockchain bros are upset at the hardcore toxic maxis making fun of them and they’ve decided they’ve had enough. But unfortunately for them, you can’t just wish people away, and that frustrates them. When the maxi’s are proven right, they hate them even more because they’re emotional and don’t care about the truth because they’re desperate to be right. It also has driven a lot of engagement, and I think some people pushing this narrative know better but are intentionally trying to create a divide for engagement and growing their own personal brand.
What kind of damage do you think the latest price drop has done to buyer sentiment?
Depends on the crowd. For the people who are more curios about buying bitcoin, they ran far away from bitcoin and won’t become interested again until near next cycle’s blow off top. Some of the casual people are stacking but not aggressivley, some are diving deeper down the rabbit hole and will become hardcore vets. The hardcore crowd is stacking as hard as they can during these cheap prices before it’s all gobbled up.
What is it going to take to turn this around?
Time. I don’t expect us to go back up past ATH until after the next halving. We may pump a bit and people will think we’re at the start of a new bull market, just for it to crash back down - hard.
What type of carnage do you expect to see in Bitcoin startups?
Those using leverage can get really rekt, and ruin an entire business. I’ve been seeing some Bitcoin companies start to go woke and it’s turned off a lot of people in Bitcoin who don’t like the virtue signaling. I’m curious to see what companies can survive this bear market, as I know many companies are hurting after bitcoin being down so much, and the lack of new people coming into the market.
Other than that I havent seen much crazy carnage from Bitcoin startups, since they tend to stick to safe, more conservative approaches to running a company. It’s the crypto start ups that are going through the most carnage, with some companies completely failing and their founders no where to be seen.
Small Bitcoin startups I’ve noticed tend to hire people already into Bitcoin for positions, then train them how to do a certain job, because they will most likey work harder and put more passion into their work than hiring someone with no Bitcoin knowledge.
What are your tips for HODLing Bitcoin through downturns?
Do not take on leverage. I have took on leverage before and I had to get out of it at a slight loss because I was having trouble sleeping at night. People lose their BTC so easily from this.
It is incredible easy to be an ultra bull on bitcoin and think we’re about to moon, but you have to take off your orange colored glasses and see things for how they really are. It is ok to be short term bearish on bitcoin. Understand this is not a get quick rich thing, you need to be thinking on an at least 4 year time horizon and not give af about what happens short term.
Educate yourself on why bitcoin, and not fiat and central banking. See the real world examples of governments shutting off people banks accounts for having opinions they want to censor. Having difficult to seize, censorship free money separate from state is so important that I do not care if the price goes down temporarily. Because I know my money can’t get frozen and cut off at the click of a button.
How do you feel about alt-coins and NFT’s and stable coins?
I am not interested in altcoins and NFTs, and would not advise people to put their money into them. All scams and wastes of time.
Looking at developing countries it is interesting to see how many citizens who know about stable coins often prefer them over bitcoin. Mainly citing their reasons for this because of the volatility and wanting access to the dollar to escape their failing home national currency. With education and time, these people will allocate their stablecoins to BTC.
To be clear, I prefer people to transact in BTC instead of stable coins. And I don’t even consider stablecoins as crypto, it’s not something to invest in it’s just a representation of a dollar. I don’t want to dunk on poor people living in poverty for just wanting access to the dollar while I live a high quality life utilizing the dollar because they are living in a world that I have never experienced, don’t know what their lives and needs are really like. The downward volatility of bitcoin may crush someone who is depending on every dollar day to day. I see it as a way for them to do normal day to day business in dollars, then be able to put saved income into BTC. Like how I get paid in fiat and stack sats with my extra income.
What kind of impact do you think the radical drop in alt-coins and NFT’s will have on their future?
Unfortunately I do not think shitcoining is over any time soon. Bitcoin is currently a $458 billion asset. There are hundreds of trillions of money and assets in the world, a lot of that will flow into and back out of shitcoins, but I believe will eventually make it’s way into BTC for good.
NFTs were this cycles ICO’s from 2017. There will be a new scam and gimmick next cycle that suckers people in.
What do you think about shitcoin implosions like Luna, Celsus and the Solana hack?
They disappoint me and really annoy me when the price crashes because of it. I want Bitcoin to succeed and win, and the only way that happens is with adoption and price rising. I love stacking cheap sats, but I want Bitcoin’s star to continue rise. I see these as missallocations of capital that would have been better off in BTC. Imagine if all the shitcoin money was focused on buying BTC, funding quality Bitcoin devs, investing in companies providing real value in the ecosystem, etc. Bitcoin would be SO much further ahead.
What is your take on FTX buying up distressed Bitcoin companies like Blockfi?
Sam is a fiat business man and will sell whatever to make money. I do not think he actually cares about what Bitcoin could do for the world, but just that he knows he can make profit in this space. So this acquisition does not surprise me, and BlockFi must be feeling incredibly lucky they get to continue their BS. Some influencers got so rekt on their investments in that company like Pomp who took Bitcoin out of his bio and laser eyes off and didnt tweet about Bitcoin for weeks 🤣
What is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin during a down market?
Buying bitcoin as often as possible, for a long duration of time. If we have big drop, increase the buying as much as you can. Increase cashflow and buy bitcoin. Bear markets last a while, so don’t panic if you miss a drop, because chances are you will see those numbers again. Sell stuff you don’t need. Increase cash flow, live below your means.
How bullish are you on Bitcoin despite this recent pullback?
I’m very bullish on Bitcoin, literally betting my life on it. I work in Bitcoin and I use BTC as my savings plan. My life is focused around it. In the short term I can see a pullback in price for sure, because bitcoin just likes doing that sometimes. But historically, bitcoin loves going up, and I’m betting that it will continue going up and up and up and up and up.
I got into Bitcoin when I was 18, and I’m curious to see how my life continues to go by living on a Bitcoin standard. I’m now almost 23 and so far, so good. I’m bullish because building a life on this hard money standard has given me so much opportunity because my savings have increased, not decreased. Building a foundation of wealth for myself with Bitcoin is opening up many doors for me, giving me peace of mind about my future, allowing me to spend time on what I really enjoy, and more. I’m very bullish.
Any tips you want to give to people new to Bitcoin?
Recognize that on Twitter you can reach out easily and talk to a lot of very smart people, use that to your advantage and learn. Reach out and talk to these people who have been around the block, you might just learn a thing or two.
When I really dived into Bitcoin Twitter, I used to be bored at my old job while I was in school and I would DM these people who seemed like they really knew what they were talking about and asked for advice. Not all of it was perfect, but most of the advice really helped me.
Any last words of wisdom?
Bitcoin is pretty dope but there is more to life than it. Remember Bitcoin is money, and money is something we use to improve our quality of life. Don’t get too caught up in all the Twitter drama and remember to enjoy life. Spend time working on your relationships. Because if you have a lot of bitcoin but no family, friends or loved one, then you are poor.
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